A political alliance between former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and the leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is already sparking new discussions ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Although none of the two politicians has emerged as the official presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), the two are being tipped as the preferred candidates to contest the ruling party and other strong opposition parties in the next election cycle.
Political analysts say the talks are largely driven by the electoral realities of the 2023 presidential election where both candidates recorded impressive but regionally limited performances.
Obi received over six million votes nationwide on the platform of the Labour Party and won 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). But in the north, he only carried Plateau and Nasarawa states and the FCT, where he had a huge following.
Mr Kwankwaso, who contested on the platform of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), won Kano State and got close to one million votes further cementing his influence in the North-West.
The proposed alliance is now sparking questions whether Kwankwaso’s northern political structure could help Obi improve his acceptability across the region in 2027.
In an exclusive interview, political analyst and lecturer at the Aliko Dangote University of Science and Technology, Professor Murtala Muhammad said the appeal of Obi in the North during the 2023 election was mostly at the level of urban centers among the youth and among citizens seeking alternatives to the major political parties.
He said, “During the 2023 presidential election, Peter Obi demonstrated some electoral strength in parts of Northern Nigeria, especially in Abuja and among urban youths, middle-class voters and citizens who are dissatisfied with the traditional political establishment.”
He said electoral trends showed that Obi’s strongest support base remained outside the North.
“Electoral analyses put his northern vote share at about 14 per cent against over 40 per cent in Southern Nigeria,” Muhammad said.
He said that while an alliance with Kwankwaso could improve Obi’s chances in Kano and some parts of the North-West, it may not significantly affect the overall regional voting pattern.
“A possible alliance with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso could make Obi more competitive, especially in Kano with the Kwankwasiyya movement, but this does not automatically translate into mass support in the north,” he added.
He said that in much of the North-West, voting behaviour is still driven by religion, regional identity, long-term party loyalty and local politics.
“So, many northern voters may still be reluctant to support Obi despite Kwankwaso’s endorsement, and it is analytically incorrect to assume that Kwankwaso’s northern identity alone can deliver the larger North-West voting bloc to Obi,” he said.
Also commenting on the development, Kano-based politician and State House of Assembly aspirant, Aminu Abdullahi Ibrahim, said Obi has been able to gain more visibility among the northern youths than at the last election.
“I think Peter Obi has reached a certain level of popularity in some parts of northern Nigeria, especially among the young people, urban voters, Christians of the North-Central region and those Nigerians who are fed up,” Ibrahim said.
However, he argued that Obi still faces strong political constraints in the core North-West states, where entrenched political structures continue to hold sway.
His popularity in the core North-West, especially in states like Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara, still remains limited relative to well-established northern political figures like Atiku Abubakar,” he added.
Despite those limitations, a merger between both politicians could still create a stronger opposition platform than what existed in the 2023 election, Ibrahim said.
That said, if Peter Obi and Kwankwaso eventually form a political alliance ahead of future elections, it could make a significant difference compared to 2023,” he stated.
He said that any serious challenge in 2027 would be based on more than popularity or online support.
“They require strong grassroots mobilization, party unity, trusted local structures, balancing of religious and ethnic interests, and the ability to protect votes across polling units. “Even if Obi and Kwankwaso team up, it will still be a huge task to convert the public energy into a national electoral win,” Ibrahim said.
As coalition talks continue, analysts say the success of any Obi-Kwankwaso partnership may ultimately depend on whether both politicians can transform their individual regional strengths into a truly national political movement capable of competing across Nigeria’s diverse electoral landscape.
