Mixed views are being shared among voters and supporters across northern Nigeria on how the region might vote in the 2027 presidential election if former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar and former Kano Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso remain on different political platforms.
The discussion is coming against the backdrop of growing talks of a possible alliance between Peter Obi and Kwankwaso on one hand and Atiku who is expected to pursue his presidential ambition separately with a yet to be identified running mate.
Adnan Mukhtar Tudun Wada, an ADC chieftain, commenting on the emerging political permutations, said northern voters may be divided because of the different alliances and political interests ahead of the election.
According to him, Kwankwaso’s political influence remains the strongest in Kano State, unlike Atiku, whose support base stretches across several northern states.
“From what I have seen, Kwankwaso’s base is in Kano. “You could see how he only made in Kano in the previous election, Atiku is everywhere,” he said.
He said the Northern voters are not comfortable with Obi’s involvement due to the 2023 election campaign.
“The problem is that the North doesn’t want Obi on the ballot due to the religious card he played the other time. “That will also affect the strength of Kwankwaso in 2027,” he said.
Many northerners are against the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC and would want to support a northern candidate in the next election, Wada further said.
“The North is united that the APC must produce the next president and would definitely vote for a Northerner on the ballot. “He is a running mate this time around and that has discouraged many of his supporters,” he added.
Kano Obidient Coordinator, Barrister Ibrahim Muhammad, on the other hand, believes the northern vote might go differently this time than in 2023 due to proposed alliances.
“The northern vote will likely split but not like that of the 2023 because Kwankwaso is running with Peter Obi as presidential candidate from the South,” he told.
The voting pattern, he said, could depend on things like the strength of a candidate in a particular region, the choice of running mates and which candidate voters think has the best chance of beating President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027.
“And the pattern will hinge on three things: home-base strength, running mates and whether voters consolidate around the candidate they see as most likely to beat Tinubu,” he said.
Muhammad also cited the broader coalition being discussed among opposition figures and parties.
“2023 election, Kwankwaso contested as presidential candidate in NNPP, which is a different party from the party Atiku contested under and got lower votes, but this coming election (2027 election), Kwankwaso will run with Peter Obi together with a massive alliance from different parties such as LP, SDP, APGA and even those departing from APC to NDC,” he said.
He said some northern voters now view Atiku’s politics as personal ambition, not as part of a larger opposition strategy.
He alleged that “Northerners now know that Atiku is running for himself, not for Nigerians because Obi and Kwankwaso requested that he should join NDC so that they can merge and beat Tinubu and he denied.”
He further predicted that a Kwankwaso/Obi alliance would do well in Kano, Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Zamfara, Sokoto and other North-West states while Obi’s influence may also help in the North-East and North-Central regions.
The merger of Obi and Kwankwaso will help massively in getting more votes in Nigeria than any other part because of their loyalty and dedication to citizens,” he added.
But an activist in Kano, Mamman Buhari, said neither Atiku nor Kwankwaso would win.
He said, “Kwankwaso has proved himself to be selfish by supporting Obi. Obi and Kwankwaso don’t respect the political consciousness of the other, but selfishness has brought them together.
“And leave Atiku alone; he has been contesting for a very long time.
