October saw declines in crude oil production in Nigeria, Libya, and Venezuela, undercutting the output targets set by OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners.
Despite earlier agreements to increase supply, OPEC’s total output increased by barely 30,000 barrels per day in October, a stark contrast to the 330,000 bpd increase noted in September, according to a Reuters report on Tuesday.
Nigeria’s crude production, which varied between 1.3 million and 1.4 million barrels per day from January to June 2025, briefly increased to 1.5 million bpd in July before declining to 1.4 million bpd in August and 1.3 million bpd in September, according to data from OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report for October, which Channels Television was able to obtain.
According to Bayo Ojulari, Group Chief Executive Officer of Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, the “crisis between the Dangote Refinery and the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers as well as the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria” is to blame for the drop in production.
Due to weakening global markets and a stronger US currency, oil prices fell on Wednesday as investors reevaluated supply dynamics.
By 5:08 a.m. WAT, Brent crude futures had dropped by 6 cents (0.1%) to $64.38 per barrel, nearing a two-week low. The OPEC Basket fell 0.26 cents (0.39%) to $66.72 per barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate down 10 cents (0.17%) to $60.46.
In a client note cited by Reuters, ANZ analysts stated, “Investors left the energy markets due to the risk-off tone across markets.”
IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said, “Crude oil is trading lower as risk sentiment shifted sharply negative, boosting the safe haven U.S. dollar, both of which weighed on the crude oil price.”
The American Petroleum Institute reported an increase in U.S. crude stocks for the week ending October 31, which added to the pressure.
Regarding supply, OPEC+ declared in December that it would increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, but it would halt additional increases in the first quarter of 2026.
LSEG analysts, however, warned that the suspension was “unlikely to offer meaningful support to November and December prices.”
