The continued detention of former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai has opened a new political debate in Northern Nigeria, with analysts divided over whether the situation will strengthen or weaken the All Progressives Congress, APC, before the 2027 elections.
El-Rufai has remained in detention since February 2026 in connection with corruption investigations and court proceedings. He was arraigned by the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission, ICPC, in March on money-laundering charges and pleaded not guilty.
The former governor remains an influential political figure in the North and has subsequently aligned with the opposition African Democratic Congress, ADC.
His detention has therefore attracted attention beyond the legal proceedings, with political observers examining its possible consequences for the 2027 electoral contest.
One major argument is that El-Rufai’s absence could weaken opposition political organisation. He is regarded as an experienced political strategist and his continued detention prevents him from taking part fully in political activities.
Political scientist Dr Kabiru Said Sufi said the impact would ultimately depend on the way Nigerians perceive the case.
According to him, the issue has not generated the same level of public anger that was witnessed when the detention initially became a major topic.
“People seem to be seeing it either as an elitist fight, the latest fight of the elites, or as a fight between the political class,” Sufi said.
He also noted that opposition parties had not sustained the matter as a major campaign issue.
“Surprisingly, even the opposition itself has been somehow quiet,” he said.
Sufi said the ruling APC could gain from the former governor’s absence because he is considered one of the strategists capable of contributing to opposition mobilisation.
“I think the APC government has smartly moved the issue to the judiciary, passed on the issue to the judiciary, and there is less anger over the issue,” he said.
“For now, the way it will help the APC is that one of the strategists of the opposition has been taken out of the equation.”
But the political scientist acknowledged that the same detention could become a liability for the APC if public anger returns.
“If the kind of interest and anger we have felt at the beginning had been sustained, then it would have worked against the APC government,” he said.
Comrade Aminu Rabiu Kano, a political commentator, described El-Rufai as a politician whose influence extends beyond Kaduna State.
“El-Rufai is not an ordinary politician. He is a former governor, a prominent northern political figure and one of the politicians who played a significant role in the emergence of the APC,” Kano said.
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He noted that the government could defend the case as part of its accountability programme and argue that the matter is before the courts.
However, Kano said public perception would remain critical.
“Whether that argument is correct or not is a separate question, but politically, perception matters,” he said.
According to Kano, the detention could prevent El-Rufai from physically attending meetings, rallies and other political activities, but that did not automatically mean his influence would disappear.
“Detaining a politician can restrict his physical participation in politics, but it does not necessarily eliminate his political influence,” he said.
He also warned that it would be misleading to assume that Northern voters would respond to the case as one political bloc.
Kano said voters have different concerns and that electoral decisions are shaped by security, economic realities, government performance, candidates, political alliances and local political structures.
“If people predominantly see it as a genuine legal process, its electoral impact may be limited,” he said.
However, he said a different political situation could emerge if voters begin to regard the case as persecution.
“If, however, a significant section of the electorate comes to perceive it as political persecution, then it could become a useful mobilising issue for the opposition.”
Comrade Umar Muhammad Kofar Naisa, Country Director of SEDSAC, believes the APC could face political difficulties if sympathy for El-Rufai grows.
“Continued detention of El-Rufai could hurt the APC, especially because he has many supporters as a former governor. It could generate sympathy among the people, and that sympathy may turn into votes on election day,” he said.
Kofar Naisa also recalled El-Rufai’s role in the political process that eventually brought President Bola Tinubu to power.
“Anyone who knows the history of the Tinubu administration knows that El-Rufai played a role in bringing it to power. His arrest has further damaged the government’s image because people see it as going after opposition figures,” he said.
He further argued that the detention could influence political behaviour within the ruling party.
“Continued detention could reduce the courage of some APC members because they may feel that whatever contribution they make could eventually lead them to the same situation El-Rufai has found himself in if they disagree with the Federal Government,” he said.
The issue has also attracted criticism from Emir of Kano Muhammadu Sanusi II.
Speaking to Channels Television in Lagos, Sanusi questioned the consistency of Nigeria’s anti-corruption campaign and referred to El-Rufai’s continued detention.
“An example is my brother Nasir El-Rufai who’s been denied bail. He’s been in detention for seven months, not having been convicted for anything,” Sanusi said.
The Emir acknowledged the role of institutions and courts in corruption cases but emphasised the importance of consistency.
Ultimately, the political significance of El-Rufai’s detention may depend on how long the case lasts and how effectively both the APC and opposition parties use it during the 2027 campaign.
