Three years on, President Bola Tinubu’s administration is quietly but steadily reshaping Nigeria’s trajectory through targeted reforms aimed at strengthening security, revitalising production and restoring national confidence, writes Linus Aleke.
Three years into President Bola Tinubu’s administration, a review of his stewardship continues to attract heated public debate. Scrutiny is both inevitable and healthy in a democracy as complex and diverse as Nigeria. But away from the partisan rhetoric and the daily deluge of politicking, a wider review of developments in key sectors shows a record of significant achievements. From security and crude oil production to agriculture and education, the administration has embarked on reforms that are gradually changing the landscape of governance and national development.
President Tinubu took office in May 2023, inheriting a challenging security environment. The country was embroiled in terrorism in the North-East, banditry in the North-West, separatist violence in parts of the South-East, widespread kidnapping and criminality in several regions, as well as large scale crude oil theft in the Niger Delta.
Confronted with these multiple threats, the administration set out to bolster the nation’s security architecture, aware that sustainable economic growth and national prosperity cannot flourish in an atmosphere of insecurity. The government’s response focused on enhanced intelligence gathering, increased funding for military operations, improved inter-agency collaboration and the acquisition of modern security assets.
Military authorities say these efforts have been evident in a variety of operational theatres. Director of Defence Media Operations, Major General Michael Onoja, said of the achievements recorded by the Armed Forces of Nigeria: “The operational outcomes recorded across all theatres of operation during the period are irrefutable and a resounding testament to the strategic clarity, combat effectiveness and institutional resolve of the Armed Forces of Nigeria. The AFN has demonstrated an all-encompassing and growing operational capacity to decisively confront the full spectrum of challenges facing the country, from the sustained neutralisation of Boko Haram/ISWAP formations in the North East, the interdiction of bandit networks across the North West, the rescue of over a hundred kidnapped civilians across the North Central, the dismantling of illegal arms manufacturing networks, the seizure of sophisticated oil-theft convoys in the South South, to the systematic degradation of separatist criminal elements in the South East. “…317 terrorists/criminals neutralised, 314 suspects arrested, 221 civilians rescued, 18 terrorists surrendered, 93 arms recovered, three illegal refining sites destroyed while 21,910 litres of assorted petroleum products recovered.”
Aside from these particular operational results, figures released by the Defence Headquarters show that thousands of terrorists and criminal elements have been neutralised, arrested or forced to surrender during sustained military offensives. Security agencies have also rescued thousands of kidnapped victims and dismantled many criminal networks across the country. While there are still serious security challenges, the armed forces have kept relentless pressure on groups that once operated with alarming impunity and controlled extensive territories.
The impact of these efforts can also be seen in Nigeria’s standing on global security indices. Nigeria’s ranking improved considerably between 2020 and 2024, according to the Global Terrorism Index. The country moved from eighth position in 2024 to sixth in 2025, but it is still in a much better situation than when it was one of the three or four countries most affected by terrorism in the world. That implies that, in spite of occasional setbacks, the overall direction has been more positive than is often depicted.
Nowhere is the link between security and economic development more evident than in the oil and gas sector. For years, the country was deprived of billions of dollars in revenue due to crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism and sabotage while investor confidence was eroded. Sophisticated criminal networks and local collaborators masterminded the large-scale theft of crude oil, creating one of the most harmful economic leakages in Nigeria’s history.
The administration ramped up efforts to safeguard critical oil infrastructure against this backdrop. Security agencies, private surveillance contractors and local stakeholders have cooperated to significantly curtail illegal bunkering in major production areas. This has resulted in a steady recovery in the crude oil output.
The General Officer Commanding 6 Division, Nigerian Army and Land Component Commander of the Joint Task Force, South South, Operation Delta Safe, Major General Emmanuel Emekah, gave an insight into the development, saying improved security situation has allowed crude oil production to rebound to about 2.2 million barrels per day.
Major General Emekah, who was speaking during a Defence Correspondents’ visit to the Area of Responsibility of Operation Delta Safe, reiterated the military’s commitment to supporting the Federal Government’s target of achieving daily crude oil production of three million barrels by 2027.
He noted that the security situation in the Niger Delta had improved substantially, enabling residents of riverine communities to resume fishing and other legitimate economic activities without fear.
“The Niger Delta is still the backbone of Nigeria’s economy and the performance of the oil and gas sector is a critical indicator of our operational effectiveness,” he said.
He said that since taking command on 24 January 2025, Operation Delta Safe had not recorded any incidence of violent pipeline vandalism in its area of responsibility.
Major General Emekah said: “Before this time crude oil production was between 1.4 million and 1.5 million barrels per day. However, production rose steadily to about 2.2 million barrels per day by December 2025, following a presidential directive to increase output. “We are working hard to sustain and build on this figure.”
He added that from January, 2025 to date, no oil company operating within the area had reported any pipeline breach due to vandalism.
Data available from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reinforce this narrative, showing that Nigeria’s oil output has improved compared with previous years, when production frequently fell below expectations because of theft and operational disruptions. Increased production has boosted government revenues, improved foreign exchange earnings and bolstered Nigeria’s position in the global energy market.
Investor confidence has also been helped by the improvement in security. The announcement of large investment commitments worth billions of dollars for offshore and deep-water projects underscore the increasing confidence in the government’s efforts to provide a stable, secure and investment-friendly operating environment.
Speaking on these developments, Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola, said the importance of such investments goes beyond the oil and gas sector.
These investments, he said, are critical not only to expand oil and gas production, but also to strengthen the wider blue economy through port development, maritime services, local content participation and job creation. He further said the increased investor interest is reflective of improved regulatory clarity and the government’s ongoing efforts to create a safe, efficient and investment-friendly maritime environment.
Outside the energy sector, the administration has sought to reposition agriculture as a key driver of economic growth, food security and rural development. Agriculture has also remained a key component of the government’s broader economic vision given the sector’s strategic importance to national prosperity.
As Nigeria’s largest employer of labour, the sector is vital for livelihoods and economic stability. Targeted interventions, support programmes and expanded access to financing have been used by the government to boost productivity and strengthen domestic food production. There has also been a focus on improving agricultural value chains, promoting mechanisation and empowering smallholder farmers who remain at the heart of the sector’s success.
While rising food prices still exert significant pressure on households, the structural reforms taking place cannot be ignored. The administration’s focus on expanding cultivation, supporting farmers and reducing dependence on food imports reflects a long-term strategy aimed at achieving sustainable food security. The importance of such measures in tackling agricultural productivity challenges in developing economies has been consistently highlighted by international institutions like the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organisation.
The administration also sought to leave a legacy in education. For many years, financial difficulties have prevented many young Nigerians with talent from accessing tertiary education, forcing many to give up their studies or suffer great hardship in their quest for academic development.
One of the administration’s most significant interventions in this respect is the establishment of the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND). For the first time, large numbers of students can access structured financial support to pursue higher education and vocational training without the immediate burden of tuition costs. The scheme has already impacted hundreds of thousands of students and has the potential to be one of the most transformative educational reforms in Nigeria’s recent history.
In addition to student financing, the government has also shown its commitment to strengthening technical and vocational education. This is a recognition that modern economies need practical skills, innovation and entrepreneurship as well as traditional academic qualifications. The administration is helping to lay the foundation for a more competitive and productive workforce by expanding educational opportunities and investing in human capital development.
Critics of the administration frequently cite the economic hardships that accompany major policy reforms, especially the elimination of fuel subsidies and the unification of foreign exchange rates. Such concerns are understandable and deserve serious consideration. There is no way we can ignore the realities of inflationary pressures and rising cost of living that continue to confront millions of Nigerians.
Yet it is equally important to realize that deep-rooted structural distortions often require difficult reforms. International financial institutions, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, have repeatedly argued that subsidy regimes and multiple exchange-rate systems place significant burdens on public finances while discouraging investment and economic efficiency. Ultimately, the test of these reforms will not be their short-term pain but their long-term results.
History shows that nation-building is rarely accomplished through popular decisions alone. More often, it takes courage, strategic vision and the resolve to face down entrenched challenges. Three years into his presidency, Tinubu has shown a readiness to confront issues that previous governments either postponed or approached with reservation.
Much work remains to be done, but the administration’s record in security, energy, agriculture and education provides tangible evidence of progress. Military operations have degraded criminal networks and bolstered national security. Crude oil production has bounced back from years of decline. Agricultural reforms are targeted at improving food security and rural livelihoods while educational initiatives are creating more opportunities for future generations.
No government can change a nation overnight. Yet meaningful and enduring progress is often the result of deliberate policies, sustained commitment and a clear sense of purpose. As Nigeria continues its journey towards stability, prosperity and national renewal, the achievements recorded by the Tinubu administration over the past three years suggest that the country may indeed
