The exit of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso from the African Democratic Congress, ADC, is still a worry for the hitherto united opposition coalition movement in Nigeria, ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
With a divided opposition, views are divided as to whether Obi and Kwankwaso’s joint presidential ticket can spring surprises in the next general election under the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, platform.
Last week, it was reported that the leader of the Kwankwasiyya Movement in Kano, Kwankwaso and the leader of the Obidient Movement, Peter Obi have defected to the NDC.
Recall that Peter Obi and Kwankwaso were candidates in the 2023 presidential election on different platforms – Labour Party, LP and New Nigerian People’s Party, NNPP.
Peter Obi of the Labour Party won 12 states and over six million votes, same as Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, while Kwankwaso won Kano State, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC.
The merging of Peter Obi, Kwankwaso and Atiku Abubakar under the ADC was seen by many as a clear win for the opposition coalition in 2027, but now with the collapse of the merger, questions are being raised about the chance of the opposition deposing the ruling government in the next election.
But some political analysts believe that the growing division among opposition leaders ahead of the 2027 general election could weaken their chances of posing a strong challenge to President Bola Tinubu and the ruling APC.
Nigerians are also disappointed that opposition leaders were not willing to make political sacrifices and unite behind a single presidential candidate rather than pursue separate ambitions.
Solomon Dalung, a chieftain of the ADC and former Minister of Sports and Youth Development, had the same sentiment when he spoke.
He also said that there is no possibility of the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket in the NDC winning the presidential election in 2027.
He believes that the ADC is the biggest winner in the current political power game.
Obi and Kwankwaso leaving the African Democratic Congress surprised me. I mean, looking at how we formed the coalition, which included, I mean, looking ourselves on the faces and telling ourselves the truth that we were going to do everything possible to ensure that the interest of democracy and Nigeria is uppermost and not individual ambition.
“And that’s the motivating spirit that has brought us to this point. “So to wake up with the news of the duo exiting from the coalition was a grave surprise to me, because if we are looking at the interest of democracy and Nigerians, then certainly there is no sacrifice that is too much. We have to sacrifice our personal interest, we have to sacrifice our personal comfort, we have to sacrifice everything to make sure that we reach the ultimate goal.
“So, to me, there is nothing over and above this and so exciting because of the reasons they gave that, oh, because of the court cases was why they were exiting, to me, is a weak argument and untenable, because they should have remained in the party and fought the battle to the end.
“These cases were dragging on, and they didn’t go. They didn’t walk away when these cases were in the Court of Appeal. The cases were taken to the Supreme Court and the Supreme Court resolved the issues by reinstating the leadership of the party and also by nullifying the orders of the Court of Appeal and made a clear pronouncement on the jurisdiction of court as to party affairs.
“That, then, is the Supreme Court of the land. It has made clear rules. What happens to those cases in court, then? Now the cases in court become academic exercises, all the ADC lawyers will need to do is to go there and tell the court you have no jurisdiction.
“So why would they run away after the Supreme Court judgement which is in favour of the party? I think it’s all about their failure to sacrifice their personal interest to come together and address the sufferings of the Nigerian people.
And now you ask me what will happen to their departure and their chances of winning the presidential election? Well, their chances of winning the election are very, very slim. This is because, if you combine, let’s work even with the 2023 statistics, the votes of Kwankwaso and Obi in 2023, sorry, they cannot beat Tinubu. That was 2023. Now the water has gone under the bridge so far.
The vote that Tinubu won the election with, the one that came from the Muslim-Muslim ticket has now receded because they are the ones that form the chunk of the APC vote. The chunk of it is the ADC right now. And then Atiku, who has a traditional support base and then the addition to this dimension for the ADC is the Buhari support base.
And now 60% if not 70% of the Buhari supporters are in ADC. So you summarize this, you will know the ADC still has better chances of winning the election than any political party in Nigeria.
Obi and Kwankwaso support base will support the NDC. What happens to the NDC is that the youth that make up the majority They will rally behind Peter Obi and Kwankwaso but it won’t lead to victory. If you evaluate Peter Obi in 2023, there were 10 million registered voters from the South East.
“Of that 10 million, only 2.5 voted and out of that 2.5, Peter Obi got 1.9 million votes. Peter Obi’s votes were mostly from Benue, Pateau and now these three strong states as they are today had been fractured by APC.
“So Peter Obi’s base has already been breached. So I wonder where will be his stronghold this time in actual.
“Kwankwaso used to run Kano but now it’s been divided into so many pieces. You have the Gandujes of APC, then you have the Governor who was with Kwankwaso now joined APC.
“Kwankwaso left some fragments of his supporters in the ADC because some people have refused to move with him to the NDC like Obi’s supporters that have also refused to move with him in some states.
So I don’t know what the permutation is.” I have no idea what the calculation is. But if it’s this politics, I think nothing makes sense about it.
“Now at this point, let me be very frank, the ADC is the highest beneficiary in all this, because I have enumerated factors that swell the ADC support. Atiku has a traditional base. Buhari’s traditional support base came out again, and some of their followers didn’t follow them out. So at the end of the day what will happen is ADC is the highest benefit.
“Now, what is the consequence of the movement of governors into the APC? That’s not good. Because most of the governors that left did not leave with their people that is. They did not follow them in this move.
And so they added nothing. The primaries of APC is again going to leave the ADC with a lot of harvest and probably maybe the NDC. APC is the most rejected of all and the worst is going to come during the primaries in this political power play.
“Very very low is the Presidential prospect for the NDC. They may have members of the National Assembly being elected under the party but Obi-Kwankwaso’s chances are slim.
“It was the opposition summit that announced a single presidential ticket, not the ADC. But why would Peter Obi think that he would not be the only candidate, even if the ADC had said so? That is self-defeat. Why did you think you had no chance? There are so many people who had confidence in him and were working for him in ADC, a lot of people have been disappointed, including me.
“Because I don’t see him leaving the ADC and saying he didn’t have a chance. So he was expecting to get the ticket handed over to him in a democracy? So I think there is no good reason, or wisdom in that departure because the coalition is not about his personal interest.
“The Coalition is about the reckless behavior of political actors and the arrogance of the presidency, it is about a sense of entitlement. Peter Obi has proved that, oh, it is all about him, his personal ambition for presidency, and not for the interest of the suffering Nigerians. He has replicated Tinubu’s same philosophy.
all those who are contesting, are they better than any of us? But we do not sacrifice for the sake of contest. But above all, the ADC is still stronger and the ADC is the party to beat in 2027.”
But while the argument holds that the present political realignments have put the opposition at a disadvantage and could give the ruling APC an easier ride in the next presidential contest, a popular Abuja-based political analyst, Jide Ojo, told anything could happen.
“I think the defection of Mr. Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso from ADC to NDC is in accordance with their constitutional rights,” he said. It is also something that will give them the clearest and best chance to try their luck in 2027 as it is becoming obvious that staying put in ADC will most likely make them live in the shadows of Atiku.
“Lots of people didn’t understand what goes on behind the scenes. There have been talks between the camps of Peter Obi and Atiku. Peter’s camp was hoping Atiku would not run in 2027. Atiku’s was hoping Peter Obi would be his running mate in 2027.
“Atiku wanted a rerun of 2019 where he will be the presidential candidate and Peter Obi will be his running mate. Peter Obi does not want to be a running mate. “ He told his supporters he was going to be on the ballot. There’s only one ticket. It cannot be divided in two.
“So he looked at the options, and if he didn’t defect at the time he defected, in another three, four days the gate would have closed for membership registration, which was 10th of May.
“So there is only one ticket and there are two, three juganots fighting for the same and each of them sees their best opportunity in 2027 because Atiku said he is no longer going to contest after this one. “Give me this opportunity because I will do one term, Peter Obi said.
“And Peter Obi’s desperation is because, you know, the argument is it is the turn of the south, by 2031 it will be the turn of the north. So if Peter Obi is not on the ballot for 2027 that means he will be missing a big chance to try his luck whether he wins or not, it’s a secondary matter, but to be on the ballot, because once that slips by, it will not be 2031, at that time he will be close to 70 years and people will be using age against him.
“So it’s a bit of a dilemma. Politics and morality are not oil and water. Sometimes you do things because you think that is the best strategy for getting what you want.
“Tinubu went for a Muslim-Muslim in 2023, because there was a road to victory for him. But some other people, if they do it, they won’t even get 1/10th of the vote that he was able to get.
“So it’s all part of the political strategy, permutation, alignment and realignment and it’s within their constitutional rights.
You see the issue of winning an election, for you to be a politician of note, one thing you must overcome is fear.
“Politicians take big risks. Nine months out from the next election, it’s impossible to predict a winner at this stage. We’ve seen people go for protest votes. No one saw Goodluck Jonathan losing the 2015 election. But it did happen. It was an upset.
“Offset is permissible in politics, okay, David can beat Goliath. So all of this is possible, even if people think ADC staying put will be a bigger boost.
But I say, if he stays in ADC and he doesn’t get the ticket, the best he will get is running mate, and that is second best, and he wants to be a frontliner, not living in somebody’s shadow. So no one can say this is the smartest. It’s all about the pathways.”
Meanwhile, the decision of Peter Obi and Kwankwaso to leave the ADC for the NDC may not be unconnected with the issues of zoning for Atiku’s hard supporters.
Dele Momodu, a former presidential candidate and a diehard follower of the 2023 Peoples Democratic Party presidential candidate, speaking on this, told Arise News that zoning was another strategy by the Tinubu administration to divide Nigerians along regions.
“Well, zoning has all of a sudden become important because politicians now see it as the only credential needed to win an election, especially the presidential election,” he said.
“The APC and Tinubu are very aware that if they don’t start drumming this thing of zoning, there is no clear way for them to win. They know that. Very clear. But I’m not going to get caught up in this zoning hullabaloo because I’ve come to realize that it is a deliberate distraction from the important issues that we should be talking about.
“It is a distraction, and I can say this without any fear of contradiction, it is not what we need at the moment. Winning an election is strategy. Those who want zoning have their right. The same Kwankwaso told us just two, three years ago that he will not be able to be a running mate to Peter Obi and he gave his cogent reasons, one of which was that the part of the country he comes from will not vote a Peter Obi, you have the video.
“I also know that Kwankwaso is already aiming at 2031, so the game has already started. So his permutation is that he has to come out now and be like a Lamb of God who will take away the sins of the earth and to portray himself as a friend of the South, so that when it comes to his turn to run, he will be able to point at the fact that, after all, I sacrificed my own time for Peter Obi, that’s being clever.
But I don’t know. I believe in the God factor.” We don’t know who’s going to be here in 2031 or not. “I know that even in Kano his people are kicking him and attacking him. I live partly on social media. Some of us are getting kicked in the south for supporting a northerner. That is what Tinubu has been able to do. To divide Nigeria into North and South. Instead of us talking about we have no electricity, we have no security and so on and so forth.
“All we’re talking about now is where a man comes from. I think it is like we have been hypnotised. We’ve been brainwashed to think only about what part of the country you’re from.”
However, a founding member of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Osita Okechukwu, had earlier dismissed a similar statement credited to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar that zoning is “self-defeating”, stressing that such a stance is a classic case of self-denial.
Okechukwu condemned Atiku’s position, saying that the former VP, was one of the major beneficiaries of zoning in the Nigerian political space.
The former Director General of the Voice of Nigeria, VON, said this while responding to questions from journalists on Atiku’s stand.
“How can one of the biggest beneficiaries of the zoning convention turn around and deny its deep significance in the promotion of national cohesion, inclusion, equity, peace and justice?
“Throughout history, the law, with its legal teeth, and the convention, with its moral weight, have been in the public domain of human affairs. Had there been no zoning, would Atiku have become Vice President?
“Has he forgotten that he left the PDP presidential primaries in 2014 in a huff and came to the APC with us when President Goodluck Jonathan emerged as the party’s candidate?…”
