The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and opposition parties in Borno State have disagreed sharply over the chances of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his running mate, Vice President Kashim Shettima, winning the state in the 2027 presidential election.
While the APC said its strong grassroots structure, massive campaign rallies and the influence of Shettima, who hails from the state, as well as the massive developmental projects of Governor Babagana Umara’s administration in the State will deliver over two million votes for the Tinubu/Shettima ticket, opposition parties insist that political rallies alone cannot guarantee victory.
The APC State chairman, Hon. Bello Ayuba, who expressed confidence yesterday that the party would deliver massive votes for the president and vice president, said the huge turnout recorded during the party’s campaign activities was a clear indication of its popularity across the state.
Ayuba said the massive mobilisation of party supporters during the flag-off of the APC campaign in Maiduguri and subsequent ward-to-ward rallies demonstrated the readiness of members to vote for Tinubu, Shettima and other APC candidates in the 2027 elections.
He said the presence of large crowds at ward-level campaigns, including the rally in Lamisula Ward, which is Shettima’s area showed that the party’s support extended to the grassroots.
“Eventually, you could see the party members coming out en masse to show their solidarity and readiness. They showed their zeal that, yes, their son is the Vice President, and they are willing and ready to vote for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Vice President Kashim Shettima and all the other candidates of the party,” Ayuba said.
He described the turnout at the ward rally as remarkable, stressing that the size of the crowd demonstrated the strength of the APC’s grassroots structure.
The APC chairman also hinged the party’s prospects on what he described as major interventions by the federal government in Borno State, particularly in road infrastructure and the rehabilitation of critical facilities.
He listed the Gombe-Biu dual carriageway, Bama-Banki road and Maiduguri-Ngala-Gamboru road , among federal projects either awarded or currently under construction.
According to Ayuba, the contractor handling the Gombe-Biu dual carriageway has already mobilised to site, describing the project as a major intervention that would improve connectivity between Borno and neighbouring states.
“Look at the double carriage road from Gombe to Biu. Biu is in Borno State. This is a very serious project and the contractor has mobilised to site. Currently, the contractor is on site,” he said.
He also cited the federal government’s intervention in the rehabilitation of the Alau Dam following the devastating flood in the state, arguing that the projects were evidence that the administration had not neglected Borno.
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But the opposition dismissed the APC’s optimism, arguing that campaign crowds and political structures would not automatically translate into votes.
The spokesman of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), Comrade Aliyu-AK Balarabe, said the APC would struggle to retain Borno in the presidential election despite the recent campaign flag-off and the presence of the Vice President.
He argued that the federal government had failed to deliver sufficient visible development to convince voters, particularly in the area of infrastructure.
Balarabe cited the proposed upgrade of the Maiduguri International Airport, saying the project had yet to translate into visible work on the ground.
“Even the airport that they said they have approved to be upgraded, we have not seen it. There is nothing to show for it on the ground. It is just paperwork, paperwork, paperwork,” he said.
He maintained that the APC could not rely solely on campaign activities, rallies or the presence of prominent national leaders to secure victory in the state.
Similarly, the Director of Communication of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Bukar-Bukar Petrol, dismissed the possibility of the APC easily delivering Borno State for Tinubu in 2027.
Petrol said the economic hardship under the Tinubu administration could negatively affect the APC’s electoral fortunes, arguing that voters would ultimately judge the government by its impact on their daily lives.
“I don’t think they can deliver Tinubu. Why? Because Tinubu has inflicted so much pain economically,” he said.
He maintained that voters would look beyond rallies and political mobilisation to assess issues such as the cost of living, economic hardship and the impact of government policies on their livelihoods.
The opposition figures therefore argued that neither the influence of Governor Babagana Zulum and Vice President Shettima nor the size of APC campaign rallies could guarantee victory without addressing the concerns of voters.
With the 2027 elections approaching, the conflicting positions have set the stage for a keen political contest in Borno, where the APC is seeking to consolidate its dominance while opposition parties are positioning themselves to break the ruling party’s hold on the state. 
