Nigeria’s economy is showing early signs of a turnaround with output now growing faster than population growth – a development that could herald the beginning of sustained poverty reduction if it continues.
This is the key message from a new report published by Quartus Economics which points to a sharp rebound in the country’s economic performance in 2025 following a challenging 2024.
Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) in US dollar terms rose from $252.1 billion in 2024 to $307.5 billion in 2025, a growth of 21.98 percent, said the economic research firm. At the same time, GDP per person increased 19.5 percent from $1,083 to $1,295, despite continued population growth.
The nominal GDP increased from N372.8 trillion in 2024 to N441.5 trillion in 2025, in naira terms.
The report is based on official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and exchange rate figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and comparative data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
POPULATION EXCEEDING GROWTH FINALLY
The findings reveal one key highlight: Nigeria’s economic growth is now outstripping its population growth. This is a reversal of a long-standing trend that has historically impeded improvements in living standards.
Advertisement Nigeria’s population grew 2.1 percent in 2025, adding an estimated 4.8 million people. Yet, as GDP rose by almost 22 percent in dollar terms, average economic output per person still increased substantially.
“For years, Nigeria has struggled to grow its economy faster than its population,” the report said. “That pattern has now been reversed, paving the way for real reductions in poverty.”
Between 2020 and 2023 the economy grew less than 1 percent in total; the population grew more than 10 percent. In comparison, between 2024 and 2025, economic output grew by more than 8 per cent against population growth of roughly 4.25 percent.
STRONGER MONEY, MORE PRODUCTION
The report attributes the better performance to a combination of higher production and modest gains on the currency. Nigeria’s nominal GDP increased from N372.8 trillion in 2024 to N441.5 trillion in 2025 — an 18.43 percent increase.
Meanwhile, the naira appreciated by about 3 per cent on average, moving from N1,479 per dollar in 2024 to N1,436 in 2025. This double impact helped raise the country’s GDP, expressed in US dollars, a major point of reference for worldwide comparisons.
Economists say the stability of the currency is especially important for household welfare, as it helps preserve real incomes and asset values.
BEATING REGIONAL PEERS
And Nigeria’s growth rates compare favourably with many other economies in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the region posted an average GDP growth of 10.33 percent in dollar terms and 7.66 percent in per capita terms, Nigeria’s figures were much higher.
Only Ghana among the major African economies registered a better improvement, with a GDP growth of 37.7 percent. Nigeria outperformed countries such as South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Kenya and Morocco in terms of overall and per capita growth.
The trend isn’t just on the continent. The report said Nigeria’s GDP grew faster than some other emerging markets such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand and Mexico.
IMPLICATIONS FOR POVERTY MITIGATION
The report says that while poverty levels are still high, there are “modest but clear signs of progress” due to three main factors: currency stability, rising economic output and a better alignment between population and GDP growth.
“Prosperity is not a matter of fiat,” the think tank said, noting that sustained gains require continued expansion in productive sectors and maintaining macroeconomic stability.
Currency stability was found to be an important driver. In past years, sharp devaluations had eaten into incomes and increased poverty. The report argues that the recent steadiness of the naira creates a more supportive environment for wealth creation and improved living standards.
‘OPTIMISTIC CAUTIOUS’
The outlook is positive, but Nigeria’s per capita income remains below historical highs and lags several peer economies, Quartus Economics stressed. But it’s a promising trend.
“There is substantial evidence that Nigeria’s economic fortune is once again on the rise,” the report said. “This time the lift can hold, and must hold.”
The coming years will test whether the country can consolidate these gains and translate macroeconomic improvements into tangible reductions in poverty across its rapidly growing population, analysts say.
